CFX coin price in depth analysis: Can technological upgrades and favorable policies break the long short stalemate?

I. Current Market Situation: A Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears Amid a Deep Retracement

1. Price and Indicators
   • The current price is 0.19998,up2.480.2799, with short-term resistance at $0.21 yet to be breached.
   • Key moving averages: MA13 (0.2065)actsasresistance,whileMA60(0.1312) and MA133 ($0.1033) provide long-term support.
   • The MACD is negative (-0.0055), but the histogram is shrinking, indicating weakening adjustment momentum. A potential rebound could occur if the DIF crosses above the DEA.
2. On-Chain Capital Flow
   • Whales have seen a net inflow of 6.4761 million CFX Coin recently, supporting the price at low levels.
   • A total net outflow of 1.8828 million CFX indicates that retail investors and some institutions are taking profits and exiting.
3. Derivatives Risks
   • Liquidations in the past 24 hours amounted to $3.84 million, with longs accounting for 66%, suggesting that bearish sentiment dominates the short-term market.

Summary: The market is in a stalemate between “whales propping up the price” and “retail selling,” with $0.18 being a critical level for the bulls and bears.

II. Key Drivers of Future Price Movements: Three Engines Have Ignited

1. Technological Upgrade: Conflux 3.0 (Launching in August)
   • 15,000 TPS + Batch RWA Settlement: If successfully implemented, it will directly empower high-frequency scenarios such as cross-border payments and green energy exchange, potentially increasing the TVL from 0.8billionto10 billion (supporting a market cap of 15billion→apriceof2.94).
   • Quantum Defense Layout: Quantum-resistant signature algorithms will reduce long-term technological risks and their associated premiums.
2. Policy Dividends: A Bridgehead for RMB Internationalization
   • Hong Kong BSIM Cards: With access to millions of users (via phone number-based real-name KYC), they will unlock payment scenarios for the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin HKDG.
   • Belt and Road Initiative Pilot: The launch of the AxCNH stablecoin (initial volume of $100 million) in Kazakhstan, if replicated across Central Asia, could position CFX as the core chain for offshore RMB cross-border settlements.
3. Ecosystem Expansion: RWA Scaling and Institutional Adoption
   • 10 RWA projects have been launched: Scenarios such as cultural relic authentication and logistics finance will consume significant amounts of CFX for gas fees.
   • BlackRock’s Hong Kong Channel: If compliant funds increase their holdings through ETFs/trusts, liquidity structures could undergo a qualitative change (similar to the 21% single-day surge after Binance integrated the mainnet in 2023).

III. Comparison of Bullish and Bearish Forces

IV. Future Price Projections: A Three-Stage Path

1. Short-Term (1-3 Months): Conflux 3.0 Upgrade Sets the Tone
   • Optimistic Scenario: Successful launch → Break above 0.21→Target0.25 (resistance near MA60 and previous highs).
   • Pessimistic Scenario: Technical delays → Retest $0.15 (strong support at MA133).
2. Medium-Term (6-12 Months): Ecosystem and Policy Validation
   • If RWA project TVL reaches 2billion+AxCNHissuance→Target0.50 (a 150% increase from the current price).
3. Long-Term (2-5 Years): Infrastructure for RMB Internationalization
   • If CFX captures 10% of cross-border settlement volume (100billionannually)→Marketcapof50 billion → Target $9.78.

V. Investment Strategies: Seize the Opportunity During the Retracement

1. Short-Term Traders: Build positions in batches between 0.18−0.20, set a stop-loss at 0.175,andtarget0.25 (upon realization of Conflux 3.0 benefits).
2. Long-Term Holders: Dollar-cost average between 0.10−0.15 and consider staking with a 30% rate to lock in positions (annual yield of 5%+).
3. Hedge Risks: Allocate no more than 20% to cross-chain assets like ETH/SOL to diversify against uncertainties from public chain competition.

Conclusion: Compliance—A Double-Edged Sword

CFX’s ultimate narrative lies in leveraging Chinese compliance to access global markets. If Conflux 3.0 delivers on performance, RWA and cross-border payment loops are established, it could replicate the 1,900% surge seen after Binance integrated the mainnet in 2023 by 2026. Conversely, technical delays or policy tightening could relegate it to a mere “experimental project.” Currently, the coexistence of whale accumulation and on-chain outflows presents a window of opportunity amid market divergence.

** (This article does not constitute investment advice.)**